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- OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will rise to over 120 million barrels per day by 2050, with significant growth driven by non-OECD countries.
- Key sectors like petrochemicals, road transportation, and aviation will play critical roles in future demand, with petrochemical demand alone expected to grow by 4.9 mb/d.
- OPEC stresses the need for $17.4 trillion in investments by 2050 to ensure a stable oil supply and meet rising demand.
OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook 2024 forecasts a significant increase in global oil demand, reaching over 120 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050, driven mainly by non-OECD countries.
The report highlights that from 2023 to 2029, global demand will rise by 10.1 mb/d, with non-OECD nations adding 9.6 mb/d to reach 66.2 mb/d, while demand in OECD countries is expected to stagnate at around 46 mb/d. India, Other Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will be critical contributors to this growth, with India alone projected to increase its demand by eight mb/d.
OPEC’s outlook emphasizes that sectors like petrochemicals, road transportation, and aviation will significantly drive future oil demand.
Petrochemical demand is anticipated to grow by 4.9 mb/d, supported by the increasing need for products like ethane and naphtha. Meanwhile, aviation is set to contribute an additional four mb/d by 2050.
Despite the push for renewable energy, OPEC projects that oil and gas will continue to dominate the global energy mix, accounting for over 50% of total energy consumption through 2050.
The organization warns that the idea of completely phasing out oil and gas is unrealistic, stressing the necessity for $17.4 trillion in investment by 2050 to ensure a stable oil supply.
The report underscores the ongoing importance of oil in meeting global energy needs, particularly in non-OECD regions, which are expected to drive demand growth in the coming decades.
This projection contrasts many forecasts suggesting an imminent peak in oil demand due to the transition to renewable energy sources.
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